Even though BYU is tied for 5th, simulating the rest of the season they are currently in 7th place in weighted average projected standings.

But - they got a little separation from West Virginia and are now solidly in the top 7 in the conference.



And, I wanted to try to logically answer the question that has been batted around here a lot - "How many wins does BYU need to make the tourney?" I simulated the season 1,000 times (including conference tournament). I compared every team's record to TWV (true win value) - which is the # of victories the 30th ranked kenpom team would be expected to have with that schedule. Then I created the tournament field from that (including auto bids). The page below shows the % of time BYU is in or out at different win totals, and the corresponding seed they got in those scenarios. In summary - they look pretty good if they get to 21 wins (6 more - including Big 12 tournament). Most likely a bubble team left out at 20 wins. And 19 or below and there is no shot.



Go Cougs! Great win yesterday!