have been won by guys who weren't clearly a top 5ish QB in the league that year. This SHOULD give us some idea for who will win it this year....

Super Bowl winners since 2000

2000 - Rams - Warner
2001 - Ravens - Dilfer - Non HOFer and non top 5 guy
2002 - Pats - Brady
2003 - Bucs - Brad Johnson - Non HOFer and non top 5 guy
2004 - Pats - Brady
2005 - Pats - Brady
2006 - Steelers - Big Ben
2007 - Colts - Manning
2008 - Giants - Eli Manning - Likely HOFer, but not a top 5 guy.
2009 - Steelers - Big Ben
2010 - Saints - Brees
2011 - Packers - Rodgers
2012 - Giants - Eli Manning - Likely HOFer, but not a top 5 guy.
2013 - Ravens - Flacco - Non HOFer and non top 5 guy
2014 - Seahawks - Wilson
2015 - Pats - Brady
2016 - Broncos - Manning
2017 - Pats - Brady
2018 - Eagles - Foles - Non HOFer and non top 5 guy
2019 - Pats - Brady
2020 - Chiefs - Mahomes
2021 - Bucs - Brady
2022 - Rams - Stafford
2023 - Chiefs - Mahomes
2024 - Chiefs - Mahomes