Vegas have their own in-house analytics models which help set the initial spreads for their games, so comparing something like FPI, SP+ or FEI against them is akin to comparing analytics models.

Granted, the Vegas spread can move later on, due to things like betting action and injury updates and SP+ won't make those adjustments. But just because you can't believe that Bama is ranked 4th in an analytics system doesn't mean that the entire methodology is invalid. It takes more than an individual game or individual team to disprove something like that.

If someone wants to put in the enormous amount of work to compare all the systems out there to see who can most accurately predict the spread on future games, this argument can be settled. But that's how you go about doing it — it isn't from cherry picking on the fringes.