Saying Texas had a 99.9% chance of winning with 7 minutes left. Where would SMU be at in the model at the start of BYU’s comeback in the Holiday bowl 99.95? They need to pull back on the probabilities a bit, 99.9% should basically be you are up two scores and need a first down to begin taking a knee. Football is too volatile and streaky to throw around the probabilities the model immediately goes to.