if things continue as they are going.

I had a friend, now in his late 40's who switched to being a Utah fan from BYU when they moved to the PAC. I could see him switching back, and as you said, the younger people who had only seen Utah wins.

But I have 3 close friends in my ward (all in leadership positions) that I can't see switching. Two are UofU graduates and the 3rd (about 45) has been a fan since his youth following his family.