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Dec 3, 2024
3:35
:58
pm
TCuz
Coastal Elite
Here's a bunch of "bubble" teams and how they stack up in various computer rankings
Teams selected fairly arbitrarily. I don't know why I selected Iowa State and not Arizona State.
Is the committee biased against the Big 12 and ACC, or do the SEC and Big 10 teams just have better metrics? I think it's the latter.
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TCuz
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TCuz13
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TCuz
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Is the committee actually under-ranking the Big 12, or does the data just say those teams are a bit worse?
(TCuz, Dec 3, 2024 at 5:34pm)
Messages
Author
Time
Here's a bunch of "bubble" teams and how they stack up in various computer rankings
TCuz
Coastal Elite
12/3/24 3:35pm
The fact that Alabama is #3-5 with 3 losses should tell you all you need to know
ChubbyMoose
12/3/24 3:43pm
Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has
Scratch
12/3/24 3:46pm
Or maybe Utah sucks or really sucks.
Forbidden Fruit
12/3/24 3:48pm
When all of the highest regarded, unbiased computer analyses agree it probably
Scratch
12/3/24 3:49pm
RE: Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has
valcorger
12/3/24 3:50pm
Alabama lost to two 6-6 teams
CameronG
12/3/24 3:55pm
And they got blown out by one of them.
dYrtbYkerYder
12/3/24 4:00pm
Who Sagarin has as a top 30 team.
Scratch
12/3/24 4:04pm
Probably because they beat Alabama.
Huge Manatee
12/3/24 4:08pm
And what makes Sagarin correct? I've seen several other polls that have Oklahoma
CameronG
12/3/24 4:09pm
Not necessarily the authority, but considered to be one of the best
Scratch
12/3/24 4:15pm
Well that’s why we have objective data. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% right
TCuz
12/3/24 4:06pm
When the objective data includes previous years and recruiting rankings, it is
dYrtbYkerYder
12/3/24 4:07pm
Tell me why Indiana isn’t struggling from that problem?
TCuz
12/3/24 4:13pm
Which of those computer programs uses that at this point in the season?
Scratch
12/3/24 4:15pm
To be clear, a mere assumption like this is called "SEC Bias."
cosmohio
12/3/24 4:05pm
The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.
Scratch
12/3/24 4:06pm
RE: The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.
Wife_Apologist
12/3/24 4:08pm
yes
Scratch
12/3/24 4:16pm
Yes, their drubbing to the worst Oklahoma team in years by 3 TDs was really good
oryguncoug
12/3/24 4:06pm
It's simple. Had Oklahoma still been in the Big12 with that win, Alabama
reagan21
12/3/24 4:23pm
Nobody is saying a loss makes them good. But good teams still lose. Are the Detroit Lions bad
TCuz
12/3/24 4:31pm
I get that. It is the data and system we have to go on. I am not saying I think
oryguncoug
12/3/24 4:46pm
Upsets happen. Good teams lose. OU (and to a lesser extent Vandy) aren’t as bad as you think they are
TCuz
12/3/24 4:49pm
Well that’s one way to take objective data. Just throw it all out if we don’t like it.
TCuz
12/3/24 3:51pm
Who determines that these guys and their data are correct?
CameronG
12/3/24 4:07pm
Nobody. It does not mean it’s 100% correct. It’s just data.
TCuz
12/3/24 4:11pm
I just want to know why Miami has such better computer rankings…
VirginiaPeanut
12/3/24 3:44pm
I can only guess, but Miami also has several P5 blow-out wins
TCuz
12/3/24 3:50pm
Way better offense. 49% of Miami drives ended in a TD
JuicyJam
12/3/24 4:02pm
Now include resume metrics — the actual results on the field.
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 3:50pm
Here you go. I will note that the committee’s mandate is “best team” not best resume
TCuz
12/3/24 3:58pm
Best team is a team they can use to apply whatever standard they want to judge
cougaman
12/3/24 4:04pm
I think one issue with "best team" is it becomes so subjective and you will
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 4:06pm
Ok, but Alabama is a weird example to use because their resume metrics are quite strong too - despite the 3 losses.
TCuz
12/3/24 4:07pm
Most don’t think that BYU should be in the Playoffs.
Yukon
12/3/24 3:54pm
Especially when BYU played 9 conf games and beat #1 ACC team instead of Mercer
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 3:55pm
Does the computer data I shared in the OP suggest that BYU belongs on that bubble?
TCuz
12/3/24 4:03pm
What about in 2020 when BYU was blowing everyone out but then all of a sudden
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 4:11pm
They fell to #16 in Sagarin after the Coastal loss and the metrics no longer supported BYU in the NY6 discussion
TCuz
12/3/24 4:15pm
They weren't in the discussion to begin with. We honestly got more respect
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 4:24pm
That’s not true, BYU was #13 in the rankings before the loss (in a very strange year)
TCuz
12/3/24 4:36pm
Apologies - meant the playoff discussion. Yes NY6 was on the table.
Mr. Scoobs
12/3/24 4:45pm
You included FPI in your data and lost all credibility.
Yukon
12/3/24 8:05pm
If you don’t like FPI for whatever reason, feel free to use the other 4 I shared. Results are about the same.
TCuz
12/3/24 8:07pm
Those rankings seem fair. We are probably about the 25th best team right now.
N8Dawg
12/3/24 4:02pm
And Alabama is the 5th best team? Nope.
dYrtbYkerYder
12/3/24 4:08pm
Not quite. I put Alabama at 7 or 8.
N8Dawg
12/3/24 5:54pm
A lot of those rankings are subjective but look scientific
Brandoblueblood
12/3/24 4:10pm
BYU's strength of record is 12th. Somehow the OP left that out
Brandoblueblood
12/3/24 4:12pm
I shared how BYU compares on the resume metrics front here:
TCuz
12/3/24 4:16pm
Predictive rating systems
Charles Darwin
12/3/24 5:15pm
That's not how those work. That type of data is burned off by now.
Scratch
12/3/24 4:17pm
Here are some of the other computer rankings though:
JuicyJam
12/3/24 4:13pm
Not to mention the Strength of Record: 12
Brandoblueblood
12/3/24 4:15pm
Except those computer rankings are biased: they use data from prior years
Hill4Heisman
12/3/24 6:57pm
Here you go (aka the Indiana problem):
TCuz
12/3/24 7:07pm
No they don’t. Not at this point. That data is long gone from them.
Scratch
12/3/24 7:08pm
The problem is all these are cyclical. Back in MWC days our conf ranked ahead of
ImuaKahuku
12/3/24 7:48pm
Because the teams the MWC beat proved to be unexpectedly bad in conference
NYC and Japan
12/3/24 8:10pm
If this happened then that’s why. The computers aren’t subjective. That’s the
Scratch
12/3/24 8:25pm
Exactly. Every conference finishes the season at .500. But they treat wins and
ImuaKahuku
12/4/24 4:17am
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