Just listened to Drake Toll and his "Every BIG12 CCG Scenario" and my head hurts
What matters to all of us is that BYU wins and then either Iowa State or Arizona State loses.
I tried to follow the rest, but according to his research, 8 (you read that right) teams have a mathematical shot of being in the CCG game if things fall correctly. BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia.
Instead of trying to explain it all here, just listen to Drake's breakdown in this 8-minute video. He even mentions at the end that he does not even know how it will play out if any of this comes down to a tie.