than a regular shot. I don’t know the exact number, but let’s say the offense has a 25% chance of getting the rebound. Then they probably have about a 20% chance of getting another shot off after a missed 3 and a 10% chance of scoring after a missed 3.

Compare that 10% with a 0% chance of scoring again after a made dunk/layup. After doing the math I’d guess that the player would have to shoot closer to 60% for the wide open 3 to make it worth it.

This is assuming that the OP’s wide open dunk/layup is not in a position where a foul shot could come into play.

If Steph Curry is the wide open shooter, I take the wide open 3 over the guaranteed layup every time. For BYU, take the layup.