BYU-86.5% chance to beat Houston
ASU-70.6% chance to beat Arizona
ISU-57.8% chance to beat KSU
Colorado-82.9% chance to beat OSU

Calculations for 2 conf loss teams making CCG are below:
ASU-70.6% chance
ISU-57.8% chance
BYU-51.2% chance
Colorado - 15.5% chance

That leaves a 4.9% chance for a 3 conf loss team to make it in (incl the 4 above and several other 3 loss teams in conf)…so all probabilities above are slightly below actual probabilities