Should probabilities add to more than 100%?

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Nov 23, 2024
10:53:56pm

Rexy Coug Intervention Needed

Should probabilities add to more than 100%?

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Rexy Coug

Bio page: Rexy Coug
Joined: Dec 31, 2021
Last login: Mar 31, 2025
Total posts: 3,262 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Here's how the CCG shakes out in every possible scenario. BYU still has a good

zuko

11/23/24 10:40pm

Today was pretty bad for Colorado.

11/23/24 10:42pm

so BYU still has the highest probability of making it out of any teams in the

franklyvulgar

11/23/24 10:42pm

I actually think we’re gonna fall bass aackwards into the game I really do

DanSmith

11/23/24 10:44pm

oh please do.. so asu rematch? go 2 minute the entire game arod if so

franklyvulgar

11/23/24 10:44pm

2 minute only works when the opponent plays prevent D

ochobeeguy

11/23/24 10:52pm

the ball control run out clock and punt hasn't generated much besides the 3rd

franklyvulgar

11/23/24 10:53pm

I don't disagree.

ochobeeguy

11/23/24 10:57pm

Should probabilities add to more than 100%?

Rexy Coug

11/23/24 10:53pm

Yes, because the scenarios overlap significantly. The graphs at the bottom

zuko

11/23/24 10:55pm

And two teams make it. So the numbers add up to 200%.

11/23/24 10:56pm

But the probabilities in top table…what do those mean…they are for matchups not

Rexy Coug

11/23/24 11:03pm

In the top table, the probability column lists the probability of each combo

zuko

11/24/24 7:36am

Does the asterick "*" mean that game result doesn't matter? So...

oilman

11/23/24 11:00pm

RE: Here's how the CCG shakes out in every possible scenario. BYU still has a

11/24/24 7:21am

What's amazing is that with one week to play, eight of the 16 teams in the

CougarScrub

11/24/24 11:21am

I think just 6

Tasty Bacon

11/24/24 11:57am

Nope, eight. Look at the last graph up above.

CougarScrub

11/24/24 7:14pm

So only ASU and ISU control their destiny. Everyone else needs someone to lose

11/24/24 2:43pm

Actually no, even ASU and ISU aren’t quite guaranteed a spot if they win

zuko

11/24/24 2:49pm

Are you sure? I don’t see any scenarios where one of them win and don’t make it

Rexy Coug

11/24/24 2:56pm

How is that? Every scenario above they are in with a W. What would the

11/24/24 2:57pm

Rows 13 and 15 have scenarios where ISU can win and not get in. Row 20 for ASU

zuko

11/24/24 3:11pm

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