likelihood of winning the next.

His study only involves a theoretical change in likelihood to win within the context of change of an individual game.

Let’s extend it to games though:
Will winning three consecutive games increase your liklihood of making the playoffs?

Duh.

Does losing to Kansas make you less likely to beat ASU?

No.

I’d argue we’re more likely to win against ASU than we would have been if we hadn’t loss to Kansas.