Likely and unlikely is all we can say with three weeks to go, but:

The top four from the B1G are all likely to be in.

Four teams from the SEC are likely to be in (one might fall out but another league team will take its place).

Notre Dame is likely in.

Three other conference champs are certainly in. One each from B12, ACC and Other.

And that’s all there’s room for.

There’s pathways to open the door farther: ND loses games they’re favored in, Indiana loses twice, or some sort of mutual destruction in the SEC where they all get 2-3 losses

But none of them are likely. We have to win that conference champ game to get a spot. We could absorb a loss in the next three games and still make it, but not a loss in that one.