The SEC and B1G have stacked the deck in their favor to the point that the only likely losses for their top teams will be to other top teams. They both appear a lock for four CFP slots each. If Ole Miss or Georgia drops out, then aTm jumps in.

There is a sliver of wiggle room if Army gives ND their second loss of the year, and bumps them past the 12 spot, but you know the committee wants to keep them in any way possible.

So, here’s the math for twelve positions:

4 — near lock to the B1G
4 — near lock to the SEC
1 — guaranteed to a 5th conf champ
1 — near lock to Notre Dame
1 — B12 champ
1 — ACC champ

There will not be a spot at the table for more than one team in our conference. If we were undefeated while heading into our conference championship game and ranked as high as #2 or #3, a loss would still “conveniently” drop us to 13th or so.

If you want to get a second B12 team in, then you need to find a third loss for the lead dogs in the B1G and the SEC, and even then there might be some other P2 teams that simply take their place. If both BYU and CO were in the field of 12 when the game was played, then you might think we’d swap places with them at worst — but I don’t think there’s a pathway for them to be ranked that high. I’ll stand corrected if they can fight their way up that high before playing the conference championship game.

Win the ConfChamp game and earn a bye, or lose that game and go to the Alamo Bowl or Pop Tarts Bowl — that’s the math.