(Percentages made up by me)

There are 4 quarter final bowl games this year. The Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl. Of those bowls, only the Rose Bowl (Big 10) and Sugar Bowl (SEC and Big 12) have current conference tie-ins.

The top ranked champion between the Big 12 and the SEC will go to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, so that is the next most likely option for BYU is the Sugar Bowl. But BYU would have to be ranked higher than the SEC champion. Could that happen if say, Texas A&M won the SEC? Maybe. Seems extremely unlikely. Would BYU be ranked higher than a 2 loss SEC champ? Remains to be seen, but that’s a possibility.

Once the Sugar Bowl is out of the picture for the Big 12, it will be assigned based on proximity. The Fiesta Bowl is the easy choice for BYU.

Could you create a scenario where BYU goes to the Rose Bowl or maybe the Peach Bowl? Maybe, but you would have to create such a level of chaos that it seems nearly impossible. For the Rose Bowl, the Big 10 champion would have to be outside of the Top 4 champions. Based off the current rankings and contenders that seems improbable. Even if the Rose Bowl was available, you’d (likely) have to put another team in the Fiesta Bowl first, because that seems like a natural fit for BYU. So we are talking about a world where it’s

#1 Texas (Sugar Bowl)
#2 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
#3 BYU (Rose Bowl)
#4 Miami (Peach Bowl)

Something like that. Seems impossible.

You’d have to create something just as convoluted to create a scenario where BYU is assigned to the Peach Bowl.

#1 Texas (Sugar Bowl)
#2 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
#3 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
#4 BYU (Peach Bowl)

TL;DR: Plan on the Fiesta Bowl, with an outside chance of an SEC implosion and Sugar Bowl.