None of the close wins by BYU have reached a level of improbability they seem to ascribe. We are saying down 2 points BYU had 99.7 chance of losing? They would somehow need to prove something like the Miracle bowl could be contained reasonably within that .3 differential because that was far more improbable.

Also BYU is 5th in the country right now at converting 4th downs at above 80% so how exactly unlikely was it they wouldn’t convert that. I just don’t see where they get their numbers from other than just some guy moving the number around manually based on how he feels and wanting people to create memes after of the graph.

They need a serious adjustment of their metrics for that because it’s wrong..a lot.