watched IU play this season, but I think we would beat them by 7-10 points. And I can claim to be somewhat unbiased because I'm an alumnus of both schools.
IU has parlayed a really weak schedule into their first-ever 10-win season, and Cignetti has made them really fun to watch offensively, but they're kind of a paper tiger. That game against Washington (9th in the B1G standings) has been their toughest so far. Indiana got a really favorable schedule this year. They got five of their conference games at home this season and missed out on all of the top tier schools in the conference except for Ohio State. They then proceeded to add three cupcake OOC games AT HOME so they ended up with eight home games. Their four road trips are UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Three of those are within spitting distance of Bloomington.
They have a bye this week, and then travel to Columbus for their first and only real test all year. I'm guessing they'll get exposed by the Buckeyes. But then they'll blow out a hapless Purdue team at home, and the CFP committee will talk about how deep the B1G is and that IU deserves to get in, etc. Regardless, I'd feel good about our chances if we met up with them in the playoff.
At this point, it's all just conjecture though. At least college football finally has the opportunity to settle it on the field. It's silly that it's taken this long.