It assumes every team wins the easiest game left on their schedule, so this is assuming BYU beats Houston.

This site is to predict who goes to the CFP. But it also unintentionally also tells you if, according to your record, you'll get into the CCG. In any scenario, if you predict BYU to lose only 1 game, it will ask you the simple binary question whether BYU "wins" the CCG or not - in other words, it predicts BYU's in 100% with only 1 loss on the season.

If you pick two losses, however, it adds an additional option - "Doesn't make the CCG." In other words, at 10-2, our making the CCG game is only a possiblity.

When we're 11-1, it's saying not making the CCG is NOT a possibility.