Utah has a pretty good defense (by all accounts they are likely the best defense we are going to face this year) w/ an atrocious offense.

The difference is Utah game is likely to be low scoring as opposed to the high scoring UCF game.

Low scoring games can be flipped on fewer wacky plays. An inopportune fumble or interception or special teams miscue can hurt. I was not too worried about UCF. Utah doesn't really scare me *but* they have shown the ability to get defensive scores. That's likely their path to victory if there is one.