Face value: BYU had a tough time with a great OSU running attack. UCF is a great running team. UCF also took ISU down to the wire. Ergo, BYU will struggle especially with the distance question.

one layer deeper: OSU has great coaching and talent (including the 2023 Doak Walker award winner), UCF is good, but does not have the same talent
two layers deeper: OSU had 2 weeks to plan vs BYU's short week. Not the case this week
three layers deeper: BYU's defense has been stellar through 6 games this year against some otherwise strong rushing teams. Either OSU exposed key weaknesses or it was an anomaly. I think it's the latter and think BYU now has a ton of game film to train the defense to fix the problems.

four layers deep: UCF gets a ton of credit for taking ISU to the wire. UCF had 14 drives against Iowa. 9 drives ended in punts! 2 drives ended in interceptions. The other 3 TD drives were 1 play 80 yards, 2 plays 69 yards and the very first drive of the game was a 6 play 75-yard drive). Except for the first drive, they had two explosive plays and that's it! They stayed in this game because the first ISU INT was a pick 6 and the second INT was nearly a pick 6.

Keys to the game:
Win the TO battle, where BYU has been elite.
Get the defense back on its previous 6 game dominance of holding opponents well below season averages and stopping big plays
Play an average game on offense.

I think BYU wins by two scores and continues its 2024 shaming of Las Vegas spreads