There are always misses in recruiting and in drafts. Players have to put the work in after they get paid and that’s even more of an unknown with this much money at this age. But if the staff believes he’s worth it, he’s probably worth it. They would know. BYU is not making those same offers to the other top 10 talent BYU is after. They aren’t just throwing money around. The fact that AJ has already signed with Nike and is still getting better tells me he will put the work in.
TLDR: There is always risk but I trust the coaches.