Reasons to believe BYU will win:

1. BYU learned a lot about themselves in the home scare vs OSU. Jay Hill and staff will have the defensive players' full attention this week as they tweak and implement adjustments in their game plan for UCF and will be dialed in to stop their run attack. On the other side, the offense will have a new level of confidence after what they accomplished on Friday vs OSU.

2. Jake Retzlaff will be a little more judicious with his vision and check-downs on his throws. His two interceptions last week were absolutely horrible as he threw off position and got greedy trying to force the ball into very very risky areas in hopes of making a big play but ultimately lost those gambles as a result. He will also know what kind of throws to avoid from the tape they've been studying from the ISU game given the two interceptions UCF picked off from ISU's QB.

3. BYU has the more balanced offense. BYU has shown they can sling it through the air with Jake and a dynamic receiving core, but they can also pound it on the ground as shown with the return of Martin and Ropati in the last two weeks.

4. Related to the above point, don't be surprised to see Jake spread the ball around more and we see the TE's get more action in the flats. UCF's secondary has been a weak spot of theirs and if they put more focus on containing our wideouts as well as trying to get pressure on Jake, that'll likely leave our TE's and RB's wide open in the midfield of play which could be exploited for some big chunk yard plays.

5. UCF’s O-line is not OSU’s O-line.  They are not all veteran starters who all played together last year and paved the way for a Doak Walker winning RB.  They are not coming into this game off a bye week where they had extra time to evaluate and figure out where they got off track in the run game.

6. Likewise, UCF’s coaching staff is not coming into the game off a bye week and is not led by Mike Gundy.  Enough said about that.

7. Did I mention UCF won’t be coming into this game off a bye week?

8. Colorado had little to no trouble in stopping UCF’s run at the Bounce House and no trouble running the ball themselves on UCF.  If Colorado could do all that there, so can BYU.

9. This year’s BYU team has already shown they can play in hot and humid mid-day conditions and have success as shown by their game down at Baylor. They are flying in to Florida a day early (tomorrow/Thursday) to become more acclimated to both time zone differential and climate too.

10. BYU has bucked a lot of trends against them already this year (e.g. playing mid-day games, playing on the road, playing on a big stage with Big Noon/Gameday on location, etc). Why not do it again. This team has been all about bucking trends and violating expectations all season long.

11. UCF may be spent emotionally after putting all they had into winning at ISU last week and playing spoiler there, as they watched their 28-14 lead crumble and vanish into a devastating and heart-breaking last minute 38-35 loss.  However, their coach said the team was in good spirits and gained confidence from the ISU game, but that could also just be coach-speak in hopes of speaking all that into existence for his team. 

12. UCF may also be spent physically.  BYU played Friday night and may well have been given both Saturday and Sunday off as days to recover, both physically and mentally/emotionally/spiritually.  UCF on the other hand was right back at practice on Sunday. 

13. There are reports and posts of at least 7 current UCF players hanging it up for the year with the intent to enter the portal at season’s end, including a starter or two.  This reflects that the coaches may be losing much of the locker room if many are already checking out, despite the coach-speak coming from their HC in the Monday presser.

14. BYU has goals. Big goals!  And big chemistry and big camaraderie. The upperclassmen leadership of this year’s team isn’t going to let anyone in that locker room sleep on any opponent.

15. As was seen on Friday night, this year’s team might really be something truly special. I mean..divine intervention special.  ‘Angels-in-the-Outfield’ type of special. The last minute comeback win BYU had and the manner in which they did it doesn’t happen 99 times out of 100.  But that 1 in 100 time did happen before our eyes on Friday night. So yes, it might just be divine providence for this team to keep on winning. 😇😁

Reasons to believe BYU won’t win:

1. UCF has a running attack that rivals what OSU did to BYU last Friday. BYU may well have a major weakness there to be exploited in which a week may prove to be too little to get it all corrected.

2. BYU may also be at risk of having a letdown game, coming off the emotional high they had in what was the toughest and most physically demanding game they’ve had to date. Thus BYU could be the ones coming into this game more physically and emotionally spent and set to come out flat.

3. Rather than giving up on the season, the core of UCF’s team may have gained a great deal of confidence at UCF and are eager to show their resiliency and that they can take things another step up from the success they had at ISU.  It’s UCF’s homecoming and they could be juiced at yet another opportunity to knock off a ranked and undefeated opponent, this time at their place all while boosting their chances of getting bowl eligible this season. Combine this point with the point above, and it’s a really bad combo for BYU.

4. It’s just so hard to go undefeated in a regular season, much less a postseason included, especially in the P4 ranks and among the growing parity all around college football.  

5. The East Coast time differential and sudden change in climate from colder game last week back to warm and humid game this week and so forth, plus the travel in general in combination with the other points above may just all put BYU out of their rhythm.  

Putting that all on a scale, there are many more reasons to believe BYU can get it done in Orlando this week. 

Prediction:
BYU 37 - UCF 24. 

I think BYU’s turnovers last week cost them at least 10 points. At least two of them were well within field goal range and I’d like to think they’d have scored at least one other TD on of those possessions. And that right there has to be the biggest key to beating UCF this week, a team that's very similar to OSU right now, in both offense and defense. Get back to winning the turnover battle!! Do it by +2 margin, and BYU will keep cooking!

GO COUGS! 🤙