AZ will be playing to win as well, so it comes down to who is able to make the big plays when needed.

Example: I was at the Boise State game in 2021. BYU kept shooting themselves in the foot (multiple fumbles and missed tackles....). And even with BYU's terrible play, it took an incredible 60 yard catch by a BSU receiver to win the game. BYU may have a little 'wiggle room' for mistakes at home, but if they can't stop the big plays it is anyone's game.