elite with a 2.47 ERA in over 200 innings pitched, his average fastball velocity was 95.3

In 2022 before the injury, it was 95.2. This year, 95.0.

That is not a significant drop.

His issues have entirely been location.

His K rate has dropped from 2021 from 65th percentile to 16th. His BB rate from 78th down to 48th, and his chase rate from 71st to 9th.

Those are all indicators he simply hasn't been able to locate so he's walking more batters and in theory leaving more balls over the plate.... though his barrel rate and hard hit rate have only increased a little compared to 2021, so really it seems it's just the walks that are the real issue.

That said, from this casual observer he's been significantly better the last few starts. Enough so that he gives me some hope for tonight.