Ignore point spreads, over/under, etc, etc.
The source for all this garbage is not a group of friends sitting around a table eating organic foods and drinking purified water.
They are a diverse group of bookies, sports books, etc. They have no love for the game or affection for anything other than MONEY.
They want yours. The spreads they devise are meant to move money-not to pick winners on the field. One of the main reasons odds or point spreads change before an event is because more money is being bet on one opponent than they anticipated.