BYU, K-State, or Iowa State go into that game undefeated or with 1 loss in K-States situation and lose I think the loser can get an at large.
Utah and Arizona will probably have to win it. Don’t see either of them getting an at large if they go into that game and lose ending up with 2 losses on the year.
That being said I’d bet the Big 12 has no higher than a 10-15% chance at getting multiple bids this year. Unless of course more Bama type losses continue