game odds for BYU for conference play this year. Here's how the wins distribution breaks down.

20-0: 0.00%
19-1: 0.00%
18-2: 0.03%
17-3: 0.18%
16-4: 0.82%
15-5: 2.64%
14-6: 6.35% - 95th percentile
13-7: 11.70%
12-8: 16.86% - 75th percentile
11-9: 19.20% - 50th percentile
10-10: 17.40% - 25th percentile
9-11: 12.59%
8-12: 7.27% - 5th percentile
7-13: 3.33%
6-14: 1.20%
5-15: 0.33%
4-16: 0.07%
3-17: 0.01%
2-18: 0.00%
1-19: 0.00%
0-20: 0.00%

Based off those numbers I would view our ceiling at around 14-6 (which would likely be good enough for 3rd place) and our floor at 8-12 (which could put us as low as 12th place). Our "most likely" finish would be in the 10-10 to 12-8 range which would likely put us somewhere in the 6-10 range in the standings.