7-5. That would be the absolute minimum "the team fell apart" meltdown minimum floor. There is a 90.4% chance we finish 8-4 or higher. That may be more of a realistic floor for this team.

On the flip side, there is a 98% chance we finish no better than 11-1, so that may be our absolute maximum "everything went right and we had some miraculous results". We have an 87% chance of finishing 10-2 or worse. That may be a bit more of a "realistic" ceiling on our team.

Overall, FPI gives BYU about a 77.4% chance of finishing between 8-4 and 10-2 which seems reasonable to me.