way to put 2 loss B1G and SEC teams above 1 loss Big XII teams? There is a lot of money on the line. They will ensure it goes where they want it. Maybe they will not (they did give non-champ 2022 TCU a top-4 spot), but I would not be surprised if they give 2-loss Ole Miss/LSU/UGA/Tennessee spots over a one-loss Big 12 team. Same goes for Oregon, PSU, and Michigan. I am not saying it will for sure happen. I am just saying it is very much a possibility and I would not be so sure as you are.
Look at the current rankings: 1 loss ole miss is several spots ahead of undefeated ISU even though ISU beating Iowa is more impressive than Ole Miss's wins. Another loss might well drop them below ISU, but a big win might edge them over and that does not account for how much a loss will drop ISU. Plus, the Big XII can no longer count on earning respect by beating bluebloods like Texas and OU each year.
This is a new era. It seems foolish to be so certain you know a 1-loss Big XII team will rate higher for the committee than a 1-loss G1G or SEC team. We are both extrapolating and I wish I could say you are correct with certainty. But I look at the projections today and some say those 2 will take NINE spots (and I think they are anticipating the Big XII and ACC beating themselves up) leaving only the auto-bids for the ACC, Big XII, and G5, and I am less confident than ever that I believe they won't make that happen. The SEC will beat itself up some, but they will just say those are quality losses. 12 of the current top 13 belong to those conferences and I don't buy this crap that the committee does not look at preseason rankings (Missouri might be a good test-case because they have not been impressive and are not a huge brand but they are currently top 10). They just want to do less work so they don't do rankings for a while. We need upsets within those conferences to give some good teams 3 losses for me to feel better about it.
The ACC at least has a couple highly respected teams left so they have more chance than us. Sadly, I see it getting worse so the team(s) the Big XII gets in really need to perform well each year because we won't get the benefit of the doubt that Clemson, FSU, and Miami and the entire SEC and B1G will all get