hinges on defensive and offensive yards per carry.

For all the talk of how amazing the d has been (and then have been, particularly in the secondary and turnover departments), they are currently ranked 9th in the conference in defensive yards per carry. They allowed KSU 5.3 yards per carry. If they do that against good teams, expect to drop a few games.

You can’t always count on the turnover margin being in your favor. We’ve all witnessed games against Utah, Wisconsin, UCLA where those teams got up a touchdown or two and just bled the clock running for 5-7 yards per carry. Don’t expect Whit to lose the turnover margin. He rarely does.

And then on the offensive side, yards per carry really needs to be over 4 to sustain offensive drives. That will be huge in tight games to give the defense a breather and keep putting points on the board consistently.

I think if both of those can improve a bit, BYU has the talent and coaching to win 9-10 games. If only one or neither of those things improves, my guess would be 7-8 wins.