Really this is a long discussion and people write entire books about it. I'm not sure how accurate the FPI model is. But I don't think it was unreasonable to predict 4.5 wins from BYU based off what happened last year. And I don't think it was unreasonable to continue to doubt BYU even after the first few games. I also think that it would be unreasonable to be down on BYU after last night. The model has largely been in line with what I think a lot of people might expect when being totally objective. The point is, you have to update your expectations based on the new information that you get. Early this year expectations were low, and based on how we finished the season that was probably justified. And those expectations should change as the season goes on.