Weekly update on BYU win probabilities according to ESPN FPI

Sep 15, 2024
7:32:04am

bythenumbers Truly Addicted User

Not much change this week — we don't get much credit in the model for winning a game we were highly favored to win. Our chances of making a bowl, now roughly 4 in 5, are up 50% from the beginning of the season. Our total expected wins went up only very slightly from 6.53 to 6.63. But that is up almost two full games since the beginning.

Next week is a big opportunity. If we lose, the picture below won't change too much. If we win, our bowl chances will go to 90%+ and an 8 win season becomes a real possibility. It will also result in a top 25 ranking and require a lot of statistical (and mental) models to update their assessment of this team.

At the beginning of the season, the model would have given us a 10% chance of being 3-0 at this point. This clearly is a much better team than last year. On the other hand, we haven't been tested the way we will be over the next few games. The model gives us only a 7% chance of going 3-0 over the next 3 games. We're about to learn a lot about how good this team really is.

BYU Final Record Probabilities

Record	Week 0	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3
0-12	0%	0%	0%	0%
1-11	1%	0%	0%	0%
2-10	6%	2%	0%	0%
3-9	15%	9%	1%	1%
4-8	24%	20%	6%	5%
5-7	25%	27%	16%	15%
6-6	17%	23%	26%	26%
7-5	9%	12%	25%	27%
8-4	3%	5%	16%	17%
9-3	1%	1%	6%	7%
10-2	0%	0%	2%	2%
11-1	0%	0%	0%	0%
12-0	0%	0%	0%	0%
BOWL	29%	41%	76%	79%

BYU Win Probabilities according to ESPN

Opponent	Week 0	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Diff
SIU	90%	100%	100%	100%
SMU	20%	21%	100%	100%
WYO	60%	79%	86%	100%
KSU	28%	32%	34%	30%	-4%
BAY	34%	40%	44%	40%	-5%
AZ	33%	36%	53%	60%	7%
OSU	30%	32%	37%	32%	-5%
UCF	23%	18%	19%	17%	-1%
UT	24%	23%	27%	26%	0%
KS	27%	31%	43%	49%	7%
ASU	42%	31%	35%	39%	4%
HOU	63%	81%	76%	70%	-6%