weakened MWC. I don't see your scenario happening.
Weakened AAC: UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Tulsa, Navy, Army, Charlotte, UAB, FAU, USF and Temple
Weakened MWC: Air Force, UNLV, Utah State, San Jose State, Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada
I don't see how the MWC poaches USF or really anyone. In fact, the AAC could possibly poach Air Force who has flirted with the AAC before.