unless they win most of their conference games.

Of the 6 other top 40 possible games, BYU only misses one of them (Colorado). So yes, if BYU loses to TCU (#20), Ok St. (#22), AZ (#30), Baylor (#36), and Texas Tech (#31) they won't get in the NCAA tournament and they also won't be top 4 in the Big 12 standings. If they have a .500 record against these top 5 and then win the 3 or 4 or 5 of the other 5 games, then I think they get in.

The Big 12 didn't have many marquee non-conference wins overall, but the upper half did well enough that the conference will get multiple teams in the NCAA tournament.

Just one game at a time, with big stakes for each game.

And root for Wisconsin, St. Louis, LBSU, Boise, to do well in conference play.