And, the answer for the 3rd is a bit of a freebie. We'll beat Houston at home. So, two other wins.

Given this offense, and any decent team we play having more film on our defense by the week, I don't see wins against any opponent currently ranked, home or away. We'll just not be able to match offensive output (and yeah, our D kicked yewt tonight, but we can't expect to give up only 1.2 points per redzone trip ever again, much less consistently. If even one of tonight's field goals was a touchdown, we lose). So a no on 5 of the 8 remaining. And that leaves 3 games, all on the road, at Baylor, UCF, and ASU.

I'd say it's even less likely one of two wins will be against that trio than both of them being against ranked teams. At least most of them are home games.

I'm really truly not trying to be down on this team. I'd be ECSTATIC to be wrong. It's that the math just doesn't add up for me to consider it likely.