doesn’t always win these knockout tournaments. Spain clearly outplayed Italy in their semifinal match in the last Euro, but Italy beat them in a penalty shootout, and France could very well defeat Spain on Tuesday. It’s crazy that the French haven’t scored a goal from open play yet, with all their talent — it’s hard to believe that this streak won’t end soon. I think it’s basically a 50/50 proposition between them and Spain.

In the other semi, I tend to favor the Dutch and like the way they’ve been playing, and England hasn’t looked great. But England have a lot of talent (more than the Netherlands) and looked very confident in that shootout against Switzerland. And Bellingham is a difference-maker, capable of moments of greatness that win games, as we saw against Slovakia. It also feels like a 50/50 game to me.

I do think the winner of France-Spain should win the Final, but I’m not very confident in that prediction.