While it looks to be true that there are significantly more athletes rated at an "86" or higher (which is a high 3 star), how many athletes are rated at the 4 or 5 star level, and what are their ratings?

If we look at the top 247 recruits in 2025 vs. 2017, there are 32 5 star athletes in each class (that's a consistent number that is the same in every single class every single year). The next 215 athletes are all rated at 4 stars. I am not certain how much farther past #247 4 star recruits go, but the #247 recruit in 2017 was rated a "91" and the #247 recruit in 2025 was rated a "90". In fact, the "average" rating of the Top247 recruits was 94.36 in 2017 and is only 92.61 in 2025.

It's possible that since we are still relatively early in the recruiting cycle that ratings will be adjusted through summer camps and the fall football season. But it doesn't look to me like there is any grade inflation at the top of the class.


So if there isn't grade inflation at the top, I have reasons to question whether or not there is grade inflation in the middle. But if I look at just the QB position, here's how the 2025 class stacks up vs. the 2017 class:

Obviously the quality of a class varies from year to year - especially when isolating to a specific position.  But the takeaway I see is that the level of recruits given a 4 or 5 star rating is pretty stagnant over the years.  Likewise, there isn't a significant increase in high 3-star ratings (87+).  Where the significant bump seems to come is in the mid 3-star range (especially recruits in the 85-86 level).  Things end up leveling out a bit when you hit the low 3-star level?

My theory as to why we see a surge of mid 3-star recruits on the services is simply because more recruits are getting evaluated. I don't think we can readily compare an "86" today to what an "86" was 10 years ago.  It may be better or worse.  But with the proliferating of the scouting industry, I would argue that there are significantly more players that are going to the right camps, getting their film distributed, etc. to the scouting services which is resulting in many players who would have never been individually scouted and possibly thrown an arbitrary 2* rating their way simply because they got a D1 offer whereas now they are getting evaluated and many of those players are getting rated in the mid-3 star range.  I don't think it necessarily means that an "86" player is worse than an "86" player of the past (assuming they are keeping evaluation criteria relatively consistent). I also don't think it necesarily means that there are more "86" level players now than there were in previous seasons.  I think it simply means that a larger percentage of recruits are doing what they can to get evaluated (meaning fewer 2 star/1 star players who are essentially unevaluated 3-star talent).