division still had to win a play-in game to qualify. Usually against the 5th place South American team if I remember right

You're right that the best teams that don't qualify in Europe are usually better than New Zealand or even the 4-5th place teams of the other confederations (besides CONMEBOL). A good example being the 2018 World Cup where Italy, the Netherlands and Chile didn't qualify but if they were in any other division they probably would've been the best teams from those divisions