We look at our own flaws and don’t recognize that EVERYBODY else has flaws too. Momentum is also huge (including negative momentum), as we saw last season losing games we had no business losing.

Arkansas hasn’t yet been firing on all cylinders.
Kansas played well against a Big Ten team but QB missed week one with an injury (something that could re-aggravate at any time).
Cincinnati looked good at home against Pitt but will play Oklahoma and then turn around to face us at altitude on a short week at our place.
We don’t know if TCU has a defense this year (I suspect they have enough of one to beat us handily but who knows)
Texas Tech lost at Wyoming. They don’t appear to be as good as everyone thought.
Texas will be an L.
West Virginia could be riding a good or bad wave so who knows.
Iowa State should be a W at home based on what I’ve seen out of them.
Oklahoma struggled with SMU at home.
Oklahoma State has been very Jekyll and Hyde so far this year, even within the same game.

It is so tough to judge where teams are now vs where they will be when we play them. And where we are vs where we will be at any given point in the season…