There was a study by Imperial College that was released earlier today. It showed modeling of a couple scenarios for coronavirus fatalities in the US, including doing nothing (4 million people die), half-hearted mitigation (1-2 million die), and full mitigation close to what we are doing (deaths peak in 3 weeks, deaths in the thousands, but virus comes roaring back every time we relax our mitigation so we are in the long haul of devastating economic impact to prevent millions of people from dying). Pretty depressing stuff.

But that was followed up quickly with an analysis of the study that paints a much rosier picture. The Imperial College study doesn't account for several very impactful things that we are doing, including contact tracing, testing, strict quarantining of known cases, etc. With those, its more possible that we can extinct the little piece of crap virus and get life back to "normal" a lot quicker without any subsequent peaks.

Here were the 2 studies:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf