The Big 12 approached BYU and wanted BYU to join. BYU had certain conditions. The Big 12 suggested those could be met. It turns out after a day of talking that not all had been met to the degree needed by BYU. Unfortunately, BYU had already said earlier this morning it might have an announcement, then mid-day it definitely had one to make. So as it became clear not all demands were being met, BYU was forced to say SOMETHING, and the press release they put out is what we got.

How can I guess this?

First, nobody- even a really bad PR person- would EVER announce that they would be making an announcement later in the day if they knew the announcement later in the day would only say "we have no announcement to make and no more comments on the topic." That would be stupid. It would be like me announcing I have a major press release about winning the lottery, only to field many more calls and questions throughout the day about if I won the lottery, only to finally announce I didn't like questions about the lottery, that I hadn't won the lottery, and wouldn't have anything else to say about the lottery. BYU's press release was about 3 sentences long. It didn't take them all day to draft that and it sure didn't reflect anything groundbreaking. There is no way that is the press release BYU thought they would be giving earlier today.

So, what did BYU think they would be saying earlier? Only two possible answers arise- either a) we are joining the Big 12, or b) we aren't joining the Big 12. Option b) would amount to a gigantic slap to the face of the Big 12. A needless and wildly insensitive slap to the face of the Big 12. Does that sound like BYU to you? Nope. If they weren't going to join the Big 12, that's not how they would have planned to tell the world. That leaves option a).

So, playing the role of "House" and putting the mystery together, something happened earlier today that made BYU think they would go to the Big 12 (it isn't a coincidence this happened the day A&M left the conference), and then something happened later that made them hold off moving to the Big 12- either permanently or temporarily.

We can also guess what BYU was demanding to join the Big 12. Stability (high exit penalties for all teams and some assurance the remaining members would stay for some period of time), tv rights (BYU left the MWC in large part because they couldn't rebroadcast games so you know they require that before jumping into a new conference), and probably some flexibility on scheduling (I wouldn't be at all surprised if they said they would only play 7 conference games a year- something Texas and OU could get on board with as they schedule npn-conference games for their own networks). And obviously no Sunday play.

BYU thought it had a deal earlier, then one of those conditions (or more) wasn't met by tonight. They had to say something and we got the lousy release they put out tonight.

I say- it's ok. BYU is in a far better position than people here believe. People here have suffered through decades of an inferiority complex. Decades of being called a "mid-major," or a "sister of the poor," or "a team that couldn't compete in a big conference week in week out." We have then suffered through watching our little brother be selected for inclusion in the BCS club after just having learned to play football at a serious level in the past 10 years. That's no fun at all, and for many here, it's intolerable. People want BYU in that club. But take one minute and view this from the Big 12 side.

The Big 12 has lost 25% of its membership in the last 12 months. Rumors abound they are about to lose more (like Missouri or OU). The Big 12 has to act quickly to fight off other BCS conference piranhas. To show strength, they must expand. They can't keep shrinking. So, who do they take? The Big 12 made the mistake of suggesting Arkansas and ND, neither of which are going to come this year- and likely not ever. Certainly not when the stability of the Big 12 is at issue. Do they take BYU or Pitt or Louisville or SMU or Houston? National media is overwhelmingly signaling that the consensus opinion is BYU would be the best choice of that group. So what happens if BYU says no? That leaves Pitt (who isn't likely to go- especially if they know BYU rejected the Big 12), Louisville (a fellow "mid-major" called up to the majors just a few years ago with a much smaller fan base than BYU and far less revenue potential), and two Texas schools- SMU and Houston, the addition of which would strongly signal that the Big 12 remains a Texas-controlled conference. Being a Texas-controlled conference, mind you, is arguably what drove many of the current teams to leave the Big 12.

The best bet the Big 12 has for survival right now is BYU. They need BYU to signal that a "mid-major" is not out of their league. BYU's rejection would be a death blow to the conference. BYU most certainly knows this.

My point is that BYU has leverage. That said, even if BYU didn't have leverage, their demands would be the same- and I don't think they would move unless those demands were met. Even if the Big 12 was a strong conference. In other words, what BYU wants gets to the core of how BYU is viewing its program: it is a tool for reaching out to the public as a religious institution. As an independent, BYU can do that much better than it could in the MWC, and it has to be convinced it can do that at least as well in the Big 12 or it won't go. This isn't about BCS access or even more money. It is about exposure and controlling that exposure.

Ironically, BYU may have stumbled on the future of college football by going independent. The "go Big 12 no matter what" crowd should pause and reflect for a moment. Take a look 10 years into the future and tell me which is more likely: 64 teams in 4 superconferences (with presumably all other schools effectively not being relevant), or a conference structure more or less like what we have now with power teams operating as independents in the mold of BYU and ND? I don't think that's an easy prediction, but I would tend more towards several schools operating independently. Texas is already flirting with the possibility, and if the Big 12 splits in an ugly divorce with Texas, there's not much to stop them from going independent. Could Florida also? They have their own Sunshine Network. USC? OSU? Others? Once the Big 10 got its own tv network, it wasn't long for other conferences to say "that's a great idea" and follow suit. With BYU doing that and now Texas, how long until more repeat it and what does that mean for the future of conferences? It may be that BYU no longer needs to emulate traditional college football formulae for success. It may be that college football success formulae is driven by BYU.