For earlier additions in this series...

Part 1: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=6366959

Part 2: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=6369396

Part 3: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=6383624

Part 4: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=6423675

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This is the final edition in the series and details a look ahead at BYU, the Big 12, the WAC, MWC and BCS.  The majority of this post is information and predictions regarding current and future events.  These predictions are not just my own opinion.  They are based on research and active sources.  Few of these sources are directly attributed.  That is by design.  As with all the other parts, the amount of research and information I have compiled is hefty.  But, take it for what it is: A really long post on a message board.

THE FUTURE OF BYU

"We don't see this as a stepping stone or a launching pad," said Tom Holmoe.

"We will not comment on the content of our contracts," added Jamie Zaninovich.

With pomp and revelry, BYU announced its new agreements with the WCC and ESPN.  The AD and commissioner smiled and said all the things they are supposed to say.  But, they had to know the deeper questions were coming.

Is this a temporary stop for BYU until a better situation comes along?

Is there an exit clause in the agreement to bring BYU in as a full member?

No, and no comment.

Were the two seasoned interviewees telling the whole story?  Or were they just doing the dance while wondering when the long-rumored Big 12 invite would finally come?  Close followers of the independence saga probably turned off the press conference with more questions than answers.  Paramount among them:  Surely, Holmoe was just blustering wasn't he?  Even if they don't call it a "stepping stone" now, it would definitely become one if a BCS conference came calling wouldn't it?

The answer: Maybe not.

Approximately three months from now, commissioners and coordinators will meet in a swanky resort hotel for annual BCS meetings.  The agenda will mostly be the same as it is every year.  But, somewhere on that list of items will be a discussion on what to do about BYU.  Sometime between now and then the big wigs from BYU will meet with the BCS honchos and give a pitch.  The BCS might act immediately either favorably or unfavorably.  Or, it might wait.  Full evaluation for all FBS conferences won't happen until 2012 and the coordinators could put a decision on hold until then.

BYU thinks it has an ace up its sleeve, however.  The ace is ESPN.  Technically the network only holds the BCS TV rights until 2014, but dont expect it to be outbid anytime soon.  As Dick Harmon once said, "They can open doors for scheduling as an independent.  They can open up doors for bowl considerations.  And, certainly, they can go into a BCS board meeting and open up a briefcase and say, 'you know, maybe you ought to give them a consideration like Notre Dame and maybe you ought to do it tomorrow.'"

A BYU with a strong BCS tie-in means better odds of a high ROI for ESPN.  The sports giant wants and needs a strong presence in the West where a depleted WAC and a likely Fox-bound Pac-12 are off the table.  Where does it all point?  ESPN's programming VP, Dave Brown, may have just dropped a hint during the big September 1, press conference:

"If they win all their games, they're in," said Brown, "I think the business now is to the point where if they lost one, they're in."

Don't be surprised if the BCS ultimately gives BYU a deal that is mathematically designed to qualify it with one loss or fewer.  The protests from Boise and Reno will be spirited, but mostly unheard.  Brown's other interesting line during that press conference came during a follow-up question.  Speaking specifically about BYU getting into BCS game he simply remarked, "...we'll get it done here in the near future."

If the BCS gives little or no consideration to BYU, then a Big 12 invite will make for an easier decision.  But if the BCS access is already there, the complications become enormous.

Holmoe and Samuelson will have to consider several loaded questions.  BYU fans would do well to give them some thought as well.

For beginners:

-Will BYU ever find a football conference that fits as well as no conference at all?

-Will BYU ever find a non-football home so naturally suited to its culture and geography as the WCC?

-Would BYU rather play a set Big 12 north schedule every year, or continue customizing its own schedule and deals?

-Is a football-only Big 12 invite possible?  Is it desirable?

-Is the Big 12 even stable?

The deeper you get, the harder those questions become to answer.  One thing that cannot be underestimated is the importance of cultural fit to the Board of Trustees. 

Back in the late 60s and 70s, a few teams started boycotting athletic competitions with BYU because of the LDS church's stance on blacks and the priesthood.  Others schools let student bodies use the games as massive protests.  Some administrators personally believe it is only a matter of time before that starts happening again over a different political issue - gay marriage.  There were some ugly scenes at conference games 35-40 years ago that no one wants to see repeated. 

The Big 12 will expand.  That is almost certain.  But, athletically and otherwise, it's not necessarily a slam dunk for BYU.

THE FUTURE OF THE WAC

The WAC will survive.  In some form, it may even thrive.  That was verified earlier this month when the NCAA changed its rules for maintaining an automatic basketball tournament bid.   

It will probably follow the MAC model - unglamorous, but stable.  Look for the WAC to become the home of small-time, and mostly small-market schools without the resources or ambition to become much more.

Karl Benson is likely to pursue a 9-team football format and a 10- or 12-team basketball league.  Montana and Montana State will join sooner than later, and there are a couple of other Texas schools that look ready to make the jump to FBS.  Seattle and UVU are believed to be highest on the list of non-football candidates.

Whether it's a sign of how far UVU has come, or how far the WAC has fallen from its mid-90s glory days, the irony of that invitation would be profound.

THE FUTURE OF THE MWC

Craig Thompson has to be credited for one thing - his conference will still be the premier non-AQ conference in college football for the foreseeable future.  Most BCS conferences couldn't lose its top three members in both performance and revenue in a matter of months and still keep their place in the pecking order.

But, there will be some significant fallout from the last six months.  Most importantly, Thompson and his schools are now almost completely at the mercy of Comcast.  Even if it could break free of The mtn. contract, the MWC has nowhere else to go.  ESPN won't offer the conference any more than it did back in 1998.  Fox isn't interested in mid-major college football.  For that reason, the MWC will have no choice but to invite Utah State.

With BYU and Utah as the heavy lifters, The mtn. was and is critically dependent on sponsors and advertisers from the Beehive state.  One of these evenings, sit down and watch an MWC basketball game of your choice featuring two non-Utah teams.  Count how many of the advertisements are from primarily Utah-based companies.  Many of these advertisers and sponsors have promised to renew, or at least renegotiate their agreements if Utah State becomes a member.  And, considering how much time and effort Comcast put into beefing up Utah distribution in the first few years of the agreement, you can bet it won't want to leave that state untouched going forward.

But, even in the best case scenario, the TV money is going to be severely slashed.  That also means that the MWC needs a championship game to try and maximize whatever revenue will be left over.  The conference will expand to 12 teams, and they will almost certainly do it before the next round of notification deadlines is up.  Houston and SMU are on the wanted list, but the Cougars are holding out for a Big East offer.  If they don't get it, they'll probably stay put anyway.  SMU wont leave C-USA if Houston doesn't.  That means Thompson will probably settle on San Jose State unless he can persuade UTEP.  If somehow Houston and SMU are both persuaded to come, the MWC will go to 14 teams.

The MWC will also continue to pursue collaborative agreements with C-USA.  The goal is to talk the BCS into granting an automatic bid to the highest ranked of the two conference champions.  There are also some rumblings that some schools will be interested in making a scheduling arrangement with BYU like the WAC has for the next two years, but it is too early to say if anything will come of that.

THE FUTURE OF THE BCS

Plus one.

The BCS has a two-pronged approach to survival: First, make itself look like a playoff.  Second, absorb or destroy the outside threats.

The first prong will be achieved in steps.  The BCS is already pushing all of its AQ  conferences to expand to 12 teams and host a championship game, creating the feel of a first-round playoff.  At some point a conference championship game will probably become a BCS requirement.  Eventually, most believe that a "Plus One" format will be instituted that seeds the top four BCS teams into de facto semi-final games, with the winners advancing to the presently constituted national championship game.  These semi-final games will be held at the BCS bowls on a rotating basis.  The other BCS games will take consolation selections and serve as an elite NIT-type showcase during off years.  Adding the Cotton Bowl to the BCS lineup in 2015 will allow this to happen without shrinking the number of available bids.

Scenarios like this have already been proposed in the past by entities ranging from ABC to the ACC and SEC commissioners.  The TV people want the added money.  Even some of the BCS conferences want an on-the-field elimination process.  Currently, the SEC doesn't support it.  It doesn't need it.  The tune may change the next time its champion finishes at No. 3.

The second prong is happening before our eyes.  Utah and TCU are no longer BCS busters.  BYU can be worked around as an independent, or Big 12 member.  The Big East is already poised to raid C-USA.  Only Boise State remains.  The BCS is OK with that, and can actually benefit in many ways by letting one lone team roam around.  Believe it or not, there is a certain value to the big bowls in having the "buster" making headlines and pumping up one of their games.  However, the Big 12 will consider adding BYU and Boise State as a pair if it decides to make two football-only expansions.

THE SLEEPING GIANT

Jim Delaney is getting all the blame because he opened his mouth first.  But, the genesis of the 16-team super-power-mega-conferences was not the Big 10.  Back in the early 90s, many people thought the first 16-team power conference would be none other than the SEC.

Currently the Big 10 will pay its teams an annual TV payout of $22 million.  That will eventually get bigger with the addition of Nebraska.  The SEC pays out $17 million as of the last season.  What will the SEC do to keep up?

A few schools would love to know.  One trend is certain, conferences have only been getting bigger.  No one is talking about shrinking.

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Thank you for reading.  I hope you have enjoyed the subject as much as I have.

A special thanks to those who have contacted me with further information that adds more detail, context, or factual information to what I originally posted.  A few have pointed out some oversights (mostly small), or offered differences of interpretation from different sources.  As we all know, history is largely in the eye of the beholder, and I have appreciated the contributions beyond my own knowledge and research.