Predictive rating systems

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Dec 3, 2024
5:15:40pm

Charles Darwin All-American

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Charles Darwin

Bio page: Charles Darwin
Joined: Mar 21, 2020
Last login: Dec 15, 2024
Total posts: 15,694 (148 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Here's a bunch of "bubble" teams and how they stack up in various computer rankings

TCuz Coastal Elite

Dec 3, 3:35pm

The fact that Alabama is #3-5 with 3 losses should tell you all you need to know

ChubbyMoose

Dec 3, 3:43pm

Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has

Scratch

Dec 3, 3:46pm

Or maybe Utah sucks or really sucks.

Forbidden Fruit

Dec 3, 3:48pm

When all of the highest regarded, unbiased computer analyses agree it probably

Scratch

Dec 3, 3:49pm

RE: Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has

valcorger

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Alabama lost to two 6-6 teams

CameronG

Dec 3, 3:55pm

And they got blown out by one of them.

dYrtbYkerYder

Dec 3, 4:00pm

Who Sagarin has as a top 30 team.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:04pm

Probably because they beat Alabama.

Huge Manatee

Dec 3, 4:08pm

And what makes Sagarin correct? I've seen several other polls that have Oklahoma

CameronG

Dec 3, 4:09pm

Not necessarily the authority, but considered to be one of the best

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:15pm

Well that’s why we have objective data. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% right

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:06pm

When the objective data includes previous years and recruiting rankings, it is

dYrtbYkerYder

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Tell me why Indiana isn’t struggling from that problem?

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:13pm

Which of those computer programs uses that at this point in the season?

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:15pm

To be clear, a mere assumption like this is called "SEC Bias."

cosmohio

Dec 3, 4:05pm

The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:06pm

RE: The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.

Wife_Apologist

Dec 3, 4:08pm

yes

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:16pm

Yes, their drubbing to the worst Oklahoma team in years by 3 TDs was really good

oryguncoug

Dec 3, 4:06pm

It's simple. Had Oklahoma still been in the Big12 with that win, Alabama

reagan21

Dec 3, 4:23pm

Nobody is saying a loss makes them good. But good teams still lose. Are the Detroit Lions bad

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:31pm

I get that. It is the data and system we have to go on. I am not saying I think

oryguncoug

Dec 3, 4:46pm

Upsets happen. Good teams lose. OU (and to a lesser extent Vandy) aren’t as bad as you think they are

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:49pm

Well that’s one way to take objective data. Just throw it all out if we don’t like it.

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:51pm

Who determines that these guys and their data are correct?

CameronG

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Nobody. It does not mean it’s 100% correct. It’s just data.

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:11pm

I just want to know why Miami has such better computer rankings…

VirginiaPeanut

Dec 3, 3:44pm

I can only guess, but Miami also has several P5 blow-out wins

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Way better offense. 49% of Miami drives ended in a TD

JuicyJam

Dec 3, 4:02pm

Now include resume metrics — the actual results on the field.

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Here you go. I will note that the committee’s mandate is “best team” not best resume

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:58pm

Best team is a team they can use to apply whatever standard they want to judge

cougaman

Dec 3, 4:04pm

I think one issue with "best team" is it becomes so subjective and you will

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:06pm

Ok, but Alabama is a weird example to use because their resume metrics are quite strong too - despite the 3 losses.

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Most don’t think that BYU should be in the Playoffs.

Yukon

Dec 3, 3:54pm

Especially when BYU played 9 conf games and beat #1 ACC team instead of Mercer

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 3:55pm

Does the computer data I shared in the OP suggest that BYU belongs on that bubble?

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:03pm

What about in 2020 when BYU was blowing everyone out but then all of a sudden

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:11pm

They fell to #16 in Sagarin after the Coastal loss and the metrics no longer supported BYU in the NY6 discussion

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:15pm

They weren't in the discussion to begin with. We honestly got more respect

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:24pm

That’s not true, BYU was #13 in the rankings before the loss (in a very strange year)

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:36pm

Apologies - meant the playoff discussion. Yes NY6 was on the table.

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:45pm

You included FPI in your data and lost all credibility.

Yukon

Dec 3, 8:05pm

If you don’t like FPI for whatever reason, feel free to use the other 4 I shared. Results are about the same.

TCuz

Dec 3, 8:07pm

Those rankings seem fair. We are probably about the 25th best team right now.

N8Dawg

Dec 3, 4:02pm

And Alabama is the 5th best team? Nope.

dYrtbYkerYder

Dec 3, 4:08pm

Not quite. I put Alabama at 7 or 8.

N8Dawg

Dec 3, 5:54pm

A lot of those rankings are subjective but look scientific

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:10pm

BYU's strength of record is 12th. Somehow the OP left that out

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:12pm

I shared how BYU compares on the resume metrics front here:

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:16pm

Predictive rating systems

Charles Darwin

Dec 3, 5:15pm

That's not how those work. That type of data is burned off by now.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:17pm

Here are some of the other computer rankings though:

JuicyJam

Dec 3, 4:13pm

Not to mention the Strength of Record: 12

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:15pm

Except those computer rankings are biased: they use data from prior years

Hill4Heisman

Dec 3, 6:57pm

Here you go (aka the Indiana problem):

TCuz

Dec 3, 7:07pm

No they don’t. Not at this point. That data is long gone from them.

Scratch

Dec 3, 7:08pm

The problem is all these are cyclical. Back in MWC days our conf ranked ahead of

ImuaKahuku

Dec 3, 7:48pm

Because the teams the MWC beat proved to be unexpectedly bad in conference

NYC and Japan

Dec 3, 8:10pm

If this happened then that’s why. The computers aren’t subjective. That’s the

Scratch

Dec 3, 8:25pm

Exactly. Every conference finishes the season at .500. But they treat wins and

ImuaKahuku

Dec 4, 4:17am

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