Nobody is saying a loss makes them good. But good teams still lose. Are the Detroit Lions bad

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Dec 3, 2024
4:31:38pm

TCuz Coastal Elite

Nobody is saying a loss makes them good. But good teams still lose. Are the Detroit Lions bad

Because they lost to the Buccaneers? Of course not.

Are the Ravens bad because they have several losses? Of course not.

I get you want to eliminate teams based on number (or degree) of losses, but that’s not the system we have. The data says Alabama is still very good, despite the losses.

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TCuz

Previous username: TCuz13
Bio page: TCuz
Joined: Mar 1, 2014
Last login: Dec 15, 2024
Total posts: 64,064 (20,591 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Here's a bunch of "bubble" teams and how they stack up in various computer rankings

TCuz Coastal Elite

Dec 3, 3:35pm

The fact that Alabama is #3-5 with 3 losses should tell you all you need to know

ChubbyMoose

Dec 3, 3:43pm

Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has

Scratch

Dec 3, 3:46pm

Or maybe Utah sucks or really sucks.

Forbidden Fruit

Dec 3, 3:48pm

When all of the highest regarded, unbiased computer analyses agree it probably

Scratch

Dec 3, 3:49pm

RE: Or maybe Alabama is really good, has lost a couple of close games, and has

valcorger

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Alabama lost to two 6-6 teams

CameronG

Dec 3, 3:55pm

And they got blown out by one of them.

Dec 3, 4:00pm

Who Sagarin has as a top 30 team.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:04pm

Probably because they beat Alabama.

Dec 3, 4:08pm

And what makes Sagarin correct? I've seen several other polls that have Oklahoma

CameronG

Dec 3, 4:09pm

Not necessarily the authority, but considered to be one of the best

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:15pm

Well that’s why we have objective data. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% right

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:06pm

When the objective data includes previous years and recruiting rankings, it is

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Tell me why Indiana isn’t struggling from that problem?

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:13pm

Which of those computer programs uses that at this point in the season?

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:15pm

To be clear, a mere assumption like this is called "SEC Bias."

cosmohio

Dec 3, 4:05pm

The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:06pm

RE: The computer programs don't have conference biases. That's the point.

Dec 3, 4:08pm

yes

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:16pm

Yes, their drubbing to the worst Oklahoma team in years by 3 TDs was really good

oryguncoug

Dec 3, 4:06pm

It's simple. Had Oklahoma still been in the Big12 with that win, Alabama

reagan21

Dec 3, 4:23pm

Nobody is saying a loss makes them good. But good teams still lose. Are the Detroit Lions bad

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:31pm

I get that. It is the data and system we have to go on. I am not saying I think

oryguncoug

Dec 3, 4:46pm

Upsets happen. Good teams lose. OU (and to a lesser extent Vandy) aren’t as bad as you think they are

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:49pm

Well that’s one way to take objective data. Just throw it all out if we don’t like it.

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:51pm

Who determines that these guys and their data are correct?

CameronG

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Nobody. It does not mean it’s 100% correct. It’s just data.

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:11pm

I just want to know why Miami has such better computer rankings…

Dec 3, 3:44pm

I can only guess, but Miami also has several P5 blow-out wins

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Way better offense. 49% of Miami drives ended in a TD

JuicyJam

Dec 3, 4:02pm

Now include resume metrics — the actual results on the field.

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 3:50pm

Here you go. I will note that the committee’s mandate is “best team” not best resume

TCuz

Dec 3, 3:58pm

Best team is a team they can use to apply whatever standard they want to judge

cougaman

Dec 3, 4:04pm

I think one issue with "best team" is it becomes so subjective and you will

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:06pm

Ok, but Alabama is a weird example to use because their resume metrics are quite strong too - despite the 3 losses.

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:07pm

Most don’t think that BYU should be in the Playoffs.

Yukon

Dec 3, 3:54pm

Especially when BYU played 9 conf games and beat #1 ACC team instead of Mercer

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 3:55pm

Does the computer data I shared in the OP suggest that BYU belongs on that bubble?

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:03pm

What about in 2020 when BYU was blowing everyone out but then all of a sudden

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:11pm

They fell to #16 in Sagarin after the Coastal loss and the metrics no longer supported BYU in the NY6 discussion

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:15pm

They weren't in the discussion to begin with. We honestly got more respect

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:24pm

That’s not true, BYU was #13 in the rankings before the loss (in a very strange year)

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:36pm

Apologies - meant the playoff discussion. Yes NY6 was on the table.

Mr. Scoobs

Dec 3, 4:45pm

You included FPI in your data and lost all credibility.

Yukon

Dec 3, 8:05pm

If you don’t like FPI for whatever reason, feel free to use the other 4 I shared. Results are about the same.

TCuz

Dec 3, 8:07pm

Those rankings seem fair. We are probably about the 25th best team right now.

N8Dawg

Dec 3, 4:02pm

And Alabama is the 5th best team? Nope.

Dec 3, 4:08pm

Not quite. I put Alabama at 7 or 8.

N8Dawg

Dec 3, 5:54pm

A lot of those rankings are subjective but look scientific

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:10pm

BYU's strength of record is 12th. Somehow the OP left that out

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:12pm

I shared how BYU compares on the resume metrics front here:

TCuz

Dec 3, 4:16pm

Predictive rating systems

Dec 3, 5:15pm

That's not how those work. That type of data is burned off by now.

Scratch

Dec 3, 4:17pm

Here are some of the other computer rankings though:

JuicyJam

Dec 3, 4:13pm

Not to mention the Strength of Record: 12

Brandoblueblood

Dec 3, 4:15pm

Except those computer rankings are biased: they use data from prior years

Hill4Heisman

Dec 3, 6:57pm

Here you go (aka the Indiana problem):

TCuz

Dec 3, 7:07pm

No they don’t. Not at this point. That data is long gone from them.

Scratch

Dec 3, 7:08pm

The problem is all these are cyclical. Back in MWC days our conf ranked ahead of

ImuaKahuku

Dec 3, 7:48pm

Because the teams the MWC beat proved to be unexpectedly bad in conference

NYC and Japan

Dec 3, 8:10pm

If this happened then that’s why. The computers aren’t subjective. That’s the

Scratch

Dec 3, 8:25pm

Exactly. Every conference finishes the season at .500. But they treat wins and

ImuaKahuku

Dec 4, 4:17am

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