Oregon and Penn St are both in. One will go in as the B1G champ with either the 1 or 2 seed, and the other as an at large. That's 2 teams.

Texas and Georgia are both in. Exact same note as above. That's another two teams.

ND, tOSU, Tennessee, and Indiana are all in as at large teams. That's another 4 teams, and that brings us to 8.

Either ASU or ISU is in as the B12 champ. That's 9.

Either SMU or Clemson is in as the ACC champ. That's 10.

Either BSU or UNLV is in as the G5 champ. That's 11.


That leaves 1 final at-large bid. Right now the most likely top 3 candidates are Alabama (odds on favorite, imo), South Carolina, or Miami. SMU would take Miami's spot in consideration if SMU loses to Clemson. That final spot will go to one of these 3 teams.



In the "Thanks for playing, we'll see you again next year" category are: Ole Miss and BYU.



But imo, it's the 11 identified teams plus Alabama. Perhaps the committee will pull an FSU reasoning on Bama and put SC in (hard to argue that SC isn't playing better than Bama right now), but I doubt it. SC's biggest issue is the fact that they lost to both Bama and Ole Miss, the two SEC teams they are fighting with for that final spot.