BYU reasonably needs to be in the top 11 to guarantee a playoff spot. The committee has shown BYU little respect. They will be ranked behind all other power 4 teams with an identical record, and likely behind some teams with 1 more loss than BYU. So far, BYU remains ahead of any team with 2 more losses than they have. Assuming BYU doesn't win the conference championship game, what does the projected playoff contender field and playoff bubble look like in terms of wins/losses and where does BYU fit in that landscape? Ignoring the vagueness of conference championship game scenarios for now, here is each team presented as currently ranked:

1. Oregon. Likely 12-0. Remaining games @ Wisconsin (W) and vs Washington (W). They will be heavily favored in both.

2. Ohio State. Likely 11-1, maybe 10-2 pending Indiana. Remaining games @ Northwestern (W), vs Indiana (probably W), vs Michigan (W)

3. Texas Likely 10-2, but a bit more variability. Remaining games @ Arkansas (W), vs. Kentucky (W), @ TAMU (probably W). I expect they'll drop one of those, with the rivalry most likely although I think they're reasonably favored in each game individually.

4. Penn State. Likely 11-1. Remaining games @ Purdue (W), @ Minnesota (W), vs. Maryland (W)

5. Indiana. Likely 11-1, maybe 12-0. Remaining games @ Ohio State (L), vs. Purdue (W). Easy 11-1 with Purdue, Ohio State game will make the difference.

6. BYU. 13-0, obviously.

7. Tennessee. Likely 10-2, maybe 11-1 or 9-3. Remaining games @ Georgia (W?), vs UTEP (W), @ Vandy (W). Two tough road games, I expect they'll drop one, but wouldn't be surprised if they win both or drop both.

8. ND. Likely 11-1. Remaining games vs Virginia (W), vs army (W), @ USC (W). While nothing would surprise me given the NIU loss, ND will be rightfully favored in each of these games.

9. Miami. Likely 11-1. Remaining games vs Wake forest (W), @ Syracuse (W). They've played with fire in the past, but still a good team against two very beatable opponents.

10. Alabama. Likely 10-2. Remaining games vs Mercer (W), @ Oklahoma (W), vs Auburn (W). Iron bowl can get weird, but Alabama is rolling

11. Ole Miss. Likely 10-2. Remaining games @ Florida (W), vs Miss State (W).

12. Georgia Likely 9-3, maybe 10-2. Remaining games vs Tennessee (L?), vs UMass, vs Georgia Tech. Tennessee likely their last chance to pick up an L

13. Boise State. Likely 11-1 and G5 conf rep. Remaining games @SJSU (W), @ Wyoming (W), vs Oregon State (W)

14. SMU Likely 11-1. Remaining games vs BC (W), @ Virginia (W), vs Cal (W). Possible they trip up on one of those, but they'll be rightfully favored in each and have been playing well.

15. TAMU. Likely 9-3. Remaining games vs NMSU (W), @ Auburn (W), vs Texas (L). Probable they lose one of Auburn or Texas (more likely Texas), but definitely one to watch. Much closer to 10-2 than 8-4.

All together, if games go as expected there are at least 7 p4 contenders expected to have 0 or 1 loss at seasons end other than BYU. Add in a G5 team and the non-BYU Big12 conference champion, and there are only 3 more at large spots a one loss BYU team is fighting for over 5 or so 2 loss SEC/B1Gteams (maybe 1 loss BYU stays ahead of 1 loss SMU in honor of the head to head, but no guarantee). Likely there is an upset or two in there (maybe an Arkansas over Texas or Florida over Ole Miss), but that's a razor thin bubble and BYU with one loss. Even with that loss in the 13th game, BYU would likely be treated like SMU and buried behind the clump of 2-loss SEC teams. A two loss BYU team is almost certainly out without a series of unlikely upsets. Tennessee over Georgia, Texas over TAMU, and anybody over ND would all be helpful in softening that bubble and helping a 1 loss BYU get in. Still, an at large looks tough without a few more upsets.