I never said the price is always correct (although it is on average with a standard deviation of 13.5 points, the spread is off by 2+ TDs one third of the time in one direction or the other). This variation has been pretty consistent across time. If the MEAN error were not zero, it would be easily detectable in game results.

My reference to markets is about arbitrage. Professional bettors and sportsbooks have sophisticated models and are happy to jump in if they see a spread that doesn't line up with their model. You could interpret this as the opposite of EMH - there are people who make a living betting on these things, even with the negative expected returns, as opposed to the positive expected returns in equities.

Is there uncertainty in sports and sports models? Sure, this isn't the same arbitrage as trading USD for EUR for 2 different prices down the road from each other. But in the long run someone can win betting on it if they have a good enough model. I never claimed anything about half point errors, that is a strawman.

I posted the data, no analysis necessary. Just ask yourself why BYU loses ATS half the time if it is systematically biased against them. The point is that BYU doesn't beat the spread more than everybody else. Statistical significance? That was the point, they are not an outlier.

I apologize for the capitalist market comment. I don't need to believe in efficient markets or anything to simply check BYU's record ATS and verify that they are in the middle of the pack. Unless you have an explanation for how that is, you are free to ignore everything else I said.