Oct 24, 2024
8:51:23am
chilawcoug Playmaker
Classic CB
It's clear you don't know how capitalist markets work


You make this personal insult, but in your post, you assumed:

-That the college football betting market back to 2003 is consistent with the strong efficient market hypothesis. Remember that not even the stock market is generally consistent with the SEMH; the data tend to support at most the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis, if not the weak efficient market hypothesis. But sure, without any evidence I am sure that the betting market--with all of its idiosyncrasies and the industry being turned upside down 6 years ago is consistent with the strong efficient market hypothesis.
-That institutional/professional bettors are sensitive to opportunities down to the half points on lines! That's incredible. If that's true, and you know that it is true, you should quit your day job and write about that for the rest of your career. That would be an incredible case study of a market.
-That 52.4% (and an additional 1.3 points over the line) over 21.5 years is not statistically significant. I would love to see the data you ran and the p-value since you obviously did run that data in order to feel confident accusing someone of not understanding how capitalist markets work! I'll look forward to seeing your analysis.
-That the right way to analyze the question would be just raw averages instead of comparing fan base size relative to a baseline, such as how good the team normally is. For example, fan base size only matters relative to what the fan base "should" be or would be expected to be. So the right way of looking at it might be to hold constant previous winning percentage or relative to the opponents fan base. I don't know the right way because I haven't modelled out the problem and haven't ran data testing the various hypotheses to see what the data supports as the right answer. But, again, I am sure you did since you said I don't understand how capitalist markets work. I look forward to seeing your data and analysis!

Thanks for your response backing up the previous four assumptions that you made to accuse me of not knowing how capitalist markets work.
chilawcoug
Bio page
chilawcoug
Joined
Mar 6, 2021
Last login
Oct 24, 2024
Total posts
2,665 (2 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.