So, let's imagine Utah finishes 11-1 (which would mean beating ranked BYU and ranked Iowa St), but still doesn't make the CCG.

This means likely that one of Texas Tech or West Virginia goes undefeated in conference and Arizona only loses one conference game (to whichever of TTU or WVU goes undefeated in conference), winning the tiebreak over Utah by virtue of the H2H.

At that point, having lost early in the season with their backup QB, I think the CFP would likely look favorably on Utah. We've already seen last year with Florida St that they consider QB injuries in making their rankings.

If Utah goes 11-1, I'd guess they're almost certainly in the CCG or even in the extremely rare circumstance that they aren't, they're probably an at-large team. Obviously the MUCH MUCH harder part is for them to actually run the table from here on out. Teams in the Big 12 probably get exactly one mulligan. Utah has already used theirs.