That is where the real credit should go for the SMU game. I agree that A LOT of the KState game was the ball bouncing our way. However, even that game the Defense (and loud fans) created many of the errors KState had. It was forced fortune, not blind luck. I'm given confidence that those components will still be there in the upcoming home games. But to your point, some of the factors that created those "favorable bounces" (loud rowdy evening crowd, healthy starters, etc.) will not be present in toughest away games (UCF, Utah, ASU) and I do expect that BYU will drop a couple of those games.
My biggest concern is depth at this point. I didn't like what I saw from the defense or offense in the 2nd half against Baylor. But I think their struggles were at least, to a degree, due to a banged up lineup. We've already taken some pretty big hits to our starting lineup and we're only on game 5.
I'm remembering the '22 season when we started 4-1, only dropping a game (a nasty one) to Oregon. But then the injury bug hit bad and after a narrow loss to a good Notre Dame team, we had consecutive BAD losses to Arkansas, Liberty and even ECU.
To me, I've seen enough good from this team that whether we end up 7-5 or 9-3 (or better) depends mostly upon the health of this squad. I know it could go without saying every year, but health will be the number one "luck factor".