It isn't 100% or 0% til after the game is over. If BYU is given 10% chance of

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Sep 18, 2024
10:38:13am

fbguru All-American

It isn't 100% or 0% til after the game is over. If BYU is given 10% chance of

Beating SMU, 70% chance of beating the other 2 schools, their expected wins is 1.5, not 2.

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fbguru

Bio page: fbguru
Joined: Jul 12, 2008
Last login: Nov 9, 2024
Total posts: 16,316 (80 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU is the biggest overachiever thus far

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Sep 18, 8:38am

Let’s keep it going baby! Let’s be this years West Virginia!

Kolipoki

Sep 18, 8:40am

That's how CFB graphics should look

2FarGone

Sep 18, 8:40am

Love that BYU is outlier one direction and FSU outlier the other direction.

Big Daddy D

Sep 18, 8:45am

I can't figure out if I should be happy that so many didn't think we could beat

YOHONOMOTO

Sep 18, 8:56am

It is really about SMU. Lots of experts thought SMU would challenge for the ACC

88Coug

Sep 18, 9:04am

It's partly about SMU... but also Wyoming plays a big role

krindorr

Sep 18, 1:22pm

They read Cougarboard.

HenderCoug

Sep 18, 10:00am

Is this just by record, or is there more involved?

TheNerd

Sep 18, 9:00am

🤷‍♂️

Indy Coug

Sep 18, 9:31am

Doesn’t factor in *how* we won. Which, I’m told, is why CB is usually apoplectic after a game we… (checks notes) won.

mvtoro

Sep 18, 11:34am

Record vs expectations. There were really really low expectations, so this

BluebloodOR

Sep 18, 6:53pm

How the heck are we 1.5+ overachievers if we were favored in 2 games?!

andrewg3

Sep 18, 10:05am

It isn't 100% or 0% til after the game is over. If BYU is given 10% chance of

fbguru

Sep 18, 10:38am

Those percentages were crap. As if BYU would lose to Wyoming. Shoulda been 90%

andrewg3

Sep 18, 11:04am

this was preseason expectations. The expectations would certainly change with

archie

Sep 18, 11:32am

I know, I’ve just been saying all along that preseason expectations were too low

andrewg3

Sep 18, 11:45am

If you felt that way, you could have made a lot of money in Vegas this year.

archie

Sep 18, 12:04pm

I tried betting on DraftKings but it wouldn’t let me since I’m in Utah. Maybe

andrewg3

Sep 18, 12:21pm

Preseason Ford had us 75% to beat SIU, 15% to beat SMU, 57% to beat Wyoming

krindorr

Sep 18, 1:31pm

Wait till we have a bigger sample size.

VenomFarmer

Sep 18, 10:23am

How is Notre Dame at expectations? No one expected them to lose to NIU

ldssdl

Sep 18, 10:33am

They expected them to lose on the road to A&M, beat NIU at home, and beat

Six Foot Seven

Sep 18, 12:28pm

Gotcha, makes sense

ldssdl

Sep 18, 12:28pm

Vegas did not take into account injuries or the number of 2023 portal additions

Traveling Coug

Sep 18, 10:42am

Just win baby!

ByTheirFruits

Sep 18, 11:01am

Kind of surprised it’s not NIU at the top.

NonmormonYfan89

Sep 18, 11:14am

That's a function of how this is measured

krindorr

Sep 18, 1:49pm

NIU and UNLV being undefeated seem like much bigger surprises than BYU imo 🙂

BYUFootballisBack

Sep 18, 11:27am

It is a bigger surprise...but not as far ahead of expectations

krindorr

Sep 18, 1:40pm

Yep its my own bias (expecting to win against SMU)

BYUFootballisBack

Sep 18, 1:52pm

Remember our massive losing streak to end last year?

Mitty

Sep 18, 2:47pm

Kinda feel bad for FSU

Iki_Balam

Sep 18, 12:02pm

Yeah, they really thought they were getting a good QB in DJ.

TRUE_BLUE_COUGY

Sep 18, 1:35pm

really helps to overachieve when expectations are SOOO low

Czar-castic

Sep 18, 1:44pm

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